02:33
htc
Since I had to attend an event in New York City Tuesday when our latest 3D blog was posted, I decided to add my two cents to the conversation about whether 3D TV is a short-term fad.
I think those who believe that 3D isn’t going to succeed are being shortsighted. 3D will succeed, but it depends on your definition of success. Although some of the hyperbole surrounding the launch of these new 3D sets—such as Jeffrey Katzenberg’s comment that it’s analogous to the switch from black and white to color—tends to over-dramatize its impact, this time around 3D isn't a fad. In fact, it’s already in the mainstream, at least theatrically. So one traditional impediment, the lack of content, will slowly become less of an issue. Hollywood is clearly on board theatrically, so there’s a wealth of 3D content in the pipeline. From the packaged media standpoint, many new Blu-ray players are already equipped to handle 3D. Hollywood will be happy to once again sell you movies you already own in the 3D format, plus new ones making their way from theaters to the home. And I expect new 3D Blu-ray player prices to fall to the $200 to $250 range by the fall, hardly a imposing deterrent.
Distribution has traditionally been another issue, but the migration to digital—both in theaters and in the home—makes this a non-argument. Even legacy equipment, such as the settop boxes deployed by cable and satellite boxes, can handle 3D via firmware updates although there will in the short-term be a tradeoff in resolution in order to pump 3D within the TV frame-rates these older boxes can handle. Later this summer we’ll see if these so-called half-resolution formats—which really aren’t half resolution, as they only split either the vertical or horizontal resolution, not the entire signal—turn people off. My guess is that all but the hardcore videophiles will be happy with what they get. The one question is whether terrestrial broadcasts can handle the bandwidth required to transmit 3D over the air. I’ve heard they can’t, but there are other options for these “cable-never” households—IPTV over broadband being the most obvious one. In fact, Internet delivery of 3D content is still in its infancy, but it holds a lot of promise.
But the real reason why 3D will succeed is because really, it’s only a new TV feature, and one that is already priced for acceptance. Not even three months into 3D TV’s launch, you can buy a 46-inch 3D LCD TV for $1,500. A 50-inch major-brand plasma is priced at $1,800. In terms of new features, the premium for 3D is less than we saw with LED backlighting, which added about $1,000 to the cost of an LCD set when the first models were shipped. As a result, over the next 12 to 18 months we’ll see 3D become an included, differentiating feature first on almost all new step-up models, but then migrating to lower-priced mainstream lines. Two years from now, it will be like 120Hz technology in LCDs—all but the entry-level models will have it. So in essence, you’re going to get 3D whether you really want it or not, and savvy buyers will realize 3D will help future-proof their purchase even if initially they’re not so wowed by the technology or the amount of 3D programming available.
As far as hurdles, I think 3D glasses are probably the most formidable, as they’re off-putting to many consumers, for a few reasons. One, people don’t like having to wear them. But I believe that for the foreseeable future, those who own 3D TVs won’t watch 3D the majority of time. But during special-event viewing—a 3D movie, or a 3D sports broadcast, or a 3D live concert, for example—they’ll be happy to don the glasses for an hour or two in order to to participate in the experience. The cost of the glasses—currently $150 a pair—is also an obstacle, but this, after all, is the consumer electronics industry, so within a short time we’ll see basic models for $50 or so, and probably $500 Monster Cable versions with zircon-encrusted cables woven by unicorns.
Another issue—the lack of interoperability among brands, so that 3D glasses from one manufacturer won’t work with TVs from another—will also be short-lived, I believe. XpanD, which is the OEM for several brands, promises “universal” models by the end of the year, and I have heard of no technical reason why this can’t be accomplished. It’s possible that auto-stereoscopic 3D—meaning 3D without the glasses—is the real future, but we’re still a number of years from that becoming reality for TVs (it will likely arrive first in small handheld displays, notebook computers, and desktop monitors). But that really doesn’t affect the 3D ecosystem, just the display.
So, it’s my belief that 3D is here to stay. In the immediate future 3D will be used occasionally by the family, but as the content and broadcast infrastructures for 3D are developed, it’s not hard to envision watching most of the programming we receive in 3D, just as black-and-white programming gradually yielded to color, or silent movies morphed into talkies. Hey, maybe Katzenberg was onto something after all....
According to the latest Quarterly Large Area TFT LCD Shipment Report –Advanced LED+3D, 3D LCD TV panel shipments increased to 1.9 million units in Q1’11, jumping 104% Q/Q. This growth represents a 3.9% penetration among all LCD TV panels shipped. In addition, panel manufacturers are aggressively working to further increase 3D TV panel penetration in 2011, targeting 16.8% penetration in Q4’11, and 12.3% for 2011.
“LCD TV panel makers are leveraging 3D as an important feature to rejuvenate TV market demand, in the hope that 3D provides a new viewing experience for consumers,” noted David Hsieh, Vice President of the Greater China Market for DisplaySearch. “The addition of 3D is attractive to panel makers because the price premium can help them increase average selling prices. Of course, there are many challenges for the industry in promoting 3D LCD TVs to end users, such as inadequate 3D content, the presence of flicker or crosstalk that can cause dizziness, price, uncomfortable glasses, and confusion about different 3D technologies.”
LCD panel makers have aggressive plans to expand 3D LCD TV panel shipments this year, as they believe 2011 will be the year that is 3DTV’s potential is realized. In Q1’11, shutter glass type 3D TV panel shipments reached more than 1M units, while pattern retarder type 3D TV panels followed closely behind with approximately 880K units shipped.
DisplaySearch analysis in the Quarterly Large Area TFT LCD Shipment Report –Advanced LED+3D showed that LCD TV panel makers are working on the following approaches to stimulate 3D TV demand:
3D Price Premium Reductions
For the past several months, panel makers have continuously guided 3D panel price premiums downward. The 3D premium in 240 Hz panels for use with shutter glasses has been reduced from over $50 last year to $25 this year. On the other hand, pattern retarder technology is considered to have higher cost premiums than high frame rate panels due to the difficulties in producing 3D polarizing films. Because of this, some panel makers have introduced pattern retarder 3D panels with CCFL backlights, trading the LED backlight premium for the 3D premium. This approach has had some success in the China market.
3D Viewing Experience
Panel makers are leveraging new technologies to improve the 3D viewing experience, including the pattern retarder method to reduce flicker, or shutter glasses to enhance the 240 Hz driving frequency and reduce cross talk.
3D Glasses
Manufacturers have improved 3D glasses, including the development of cheaper, more user-friendly, fashionable and comfortable glasses. Some have also developed universal glasses to achieve compatibility.
Emphasis on 2D Performance
Since the amount of time consumers spend watching 2D content will exceed that of 3D on a 3D-ready TV, it is important to not sacrifice 2D quality, including full HD picture quality and high brightness. Some panel makers have developed high aperture pixel technology to improve vivid full HD picture quality, as well as high contrast panel technology to realize real black, even in low gray scales.
The Advanced LED+3D version of the Quarterly Large Area TFT LCD Shipment Report covers the entire range of large-area panels shipped worldwide and by region, with LED-backlit and 3D panels featured. With 100% coverage of panel makers and authored by industry experts, the Quarterly Large Area TFT LCD Shipment Report analyzes historical shipments and forecasts projections to provide some of the most detailed information and insights available. The report is delivered in Excel pivot tables, flex spreadsheets and a PowerPoint analysis. For more information, contact Charles Camaroto at 1.888.436.7673 or 1.516.625.2452, e-mail contact(at)displaysearch(dot)com or contact your regional DisplaySearch office in China, Japan, Korea or Taiwan.
About DisplaySearch
Since 1996, DisplaySearch has been recognized as a leading global market research and consulting firm specializing in the display supply chain, as well as the emerging photovoltaic/solar cell industries. DisplaySearch provides trend information, forecasts and analyses developed by a global team of experienced analysts with extensive industry knowledge. In collaboration with The NPD Group, its parent company, DisplaySearch uniquely offers a true end-to-end view of the display supply chain from materials and components to shipments of electronic devices with displays to sales of major consumer and commercial channels. For more information on DisplaySearch analysts, reports and industry events, visit us at http://www.displaysearch.com. Read our blog at http://www.displaysearchblog.com and follow us on Twitter at @DisplaySearch.
About The NPD Group, Inc.
The NPD Group is the leading provider of reliable and comprehensive consumer and retail information for a wide range of industries. Today, more than 1,800 manufacturers, retailers, and service companies rely on NPD to help them drive critical business decisions at the global, national, and local market levels. NPD helps our clients to identify new business opportunities and guide product development, marketing, sales, merchandising, and other functions. Information is available for the following industry sectors: automotive, beauty, commercial technology, consumer technology, entertainment, fashion, food and beverage, foodservice, home, office supplies, software, sports, toys, and wireless. For more information, contact us or visit http://www.npd.com and http://www.npdgroupblog.com. Follow us on Twitter at @npdtech and @npdgroup.
I think those who believe that 3D isn’t going to succeed are being shortsighted. 3D will succeed, but it depends on your definition of success. Although some of the hyperbole surrounding the launch of these new 3D sets—such as Jeffrey Katzenberg’s comment that it’s analogous to the switch from black and white to color—tends to over-dramatize its impact, this time around 3D isn't a fad. In fact, it’s already in the mainstream, at least theatrically. So one traditional impediment, the lack of content, will slowly become less of an issue. Hollywood is clearly on board theatrically, so there’s a wealth of 3D content in the pipeline. From the packaged media standpoint, many new Blu-ray players are already equipped to handle 3D. Hollywood will be happy to once again sell you movies you already own in the 3D format, plus new ones making their way from theaters to the home. And I expect new 3D Blu-ray player prices to fall to the $200 to $250 range by the fall, hardly a imposing deterrent.
Distribution has traditionally been another issue, but the migration to digital—both in theaters and in the home—makes this a non-argument. Even legacy equipment, such as the settop boxes deployed by cable and satellite boxes, can handle 3D via firmware updates although there will in the short-term be a tradeoff in resolution in order to pump 3D within the TV frame-rates these older boxes can handle. Later this summer we’ll see if these so-called half-resolution formats—which really aren’t half resolution, as they only split either the vertical or horizontal resolution, not the entire signal—turn people off. My guess is that all but the hardcore videophiles will be happy with what they get. The one question is whether terrestrial broadcasts can handle the bandwidth required to transmit 3D over the air. I’ve heard they can’t, but there are other options for these “cable-never” households—IPTV over broadband being the most obvious one. In fact, Internet delivery of 3D content is still in its infancy, but it holds a lot of promise.
But the real reason why 3D will succeed is because really, it’s only a new TV feature, and one that is already priced for acceptance. Not even three months into 3D TV’s launch, you can buy a 46-inch 3D LCD TV for $1,500. A 50-inch major-brand plasma is priced at $1,800. In terms of new features, the premium for 3D is less than we saw with LED backlighting, which added about $1,000 to the cost of an LCD set when the first models were shipped. As a result, over the next 12 to 18 months we’ll see 3D become an included, differentiating feature first on almost all new step-up models, but then migrating to lower-priced mainstream lines. Two years from now, it will be like 120Hz technology in LCDs—all but the entry-level models will have it. So in essence, you’re going to get 3D whether you really want it or not, and savvy buyers will realize 3D will help future-proof their purchase even if initially they’re not so wowed by the technology or the amount of 3D programming available.
As far as hurdles, I think 3D glasses are probably the most formidable, as they’re off-putting to many consumers, for a few reasons. One, people don’t like having to wear them. But I believe that for the foreseeable future, those who own 3D TVs won’t watch 3D the majority of time. But during special-event viewing—a 3D movie, or a 3D sports broadcast, or a 3D live concert, for example—they’ll be happy to don the glasses for an hour or two in order to to participate in the experience. The cost of the glasses—currently $150 a pair—is also an obstacle, but this, after all, is the consumer electronics industry, so within a short time we’ll see basic models for $50 or so, and probably $500 Monster Cable versions with zircon-encrusted cables woven by unicorns.
Another issue—the lack of interoperability among brands, so that 3D glasses from one manufacturer won’t work with TVs from another—will also be short-lived, I believe. XpanD, which is the OEM for several brands, promises “universal” models by the end of the year, and I have heard of no technical reason why this can’t be accomplished. It’s possible that auto-stereoscopic 3D—meaning 3D without the glasses—is the real future, but we’re still a number of years from that becoming reality for TVs (it will likely arrive first in small handheld displays, notebook computers, and desktop monitors). But that really doesn’t affect the 3D ecosystem, just the display.
So, it’s my belief that 3D is here to stay. In the immediate future 3D will be used occasionally by the family, but as the content and broadcast infrastructures for 3D are developed, it’s not hard to envision watching most of the programming we receive in 3D, just as black-and-white programming gradually yielded to color, or silent movies morphed into talkies. Hey, maybe Katzenberg was onto something after all....
According to the latest Quarterly Large Area TFT LCD Shipment Report –Advanced LED+3D, 3D LCD TV panel shipments increased to 1.9 million units in Q1’11, jumping 104% Q/Q. This growth represents a 3.9% penetration among all LCD TV panels shipped. In addition, panel manufacturers are aggressively working to further increase 3D TV panel penetration in 2011, targeting 16.8% penetration in Q4’11, and 12.3% for 2011.
“LCD TV panel makers are leveraging 3D as an important feature to rejuvenate TV market demand, in the hope that 3D provides a new viewing experience for consumers,” noted David Hsieh, Vice President of the Greater China Market for DisplaySearch. “The addition of 3D is attractive to panel makers because the price premium can help them increase average selling prices. Of course, there are many challenges for the industry in promoting 3D LCD TVs to end users, such as inadequate 3D content, the presence of flicker or crosstalk that can cause dizziness, price, uncomfortable glasses, and confusion about different 3D technologies.”
LCD panel makers have aggressive plans to expand 3D LCD TV panel shipments this year, as they believe 2011 will be the year that is 3DTV’s potential is realized. In Q1’11, shutter glass type 3D TV panel shipments reached more than 1M units, while pattern retarder type 3D TV panels followed closely behind with approximately 880K units shipped.
DisplaySearch analysis in the Quarterly Large Area TFT LCD Shipment Report –Advanced LED+3D showed that LCD TV panel makers are working on the following approaches to stimulate 3D TV demand:
3D Price Premium Reductions
For the past several months, panel makers have continuously guided 3D panel price premiums downward. The 3D premium in 240 Hz panels for use with shutter glasses has been reduced from over $50 last year to $25 this year. On the other hand, pattern retarder technology is considered to have higher cost premiums than high frame rate panels due to the difficulties in producing 3D polarizing films. Because of this, some panel makers have introduced pattern retarder 3D panels with CCFL backlights, trading the LED backlight premium for the 3D premium. This approach has had some success in the China market.
3D Viewing Experience
Panel makers are leveraging new technologies to improve the 3D viewing experience, including the pattern retarder method to reduce flicker, or shutter glasses to enhance the 240 Hz driving frequency and reduce cross talk.
3D Glasses
Manufacturers have improved 3D glasses, including the development of cheaper, more user-friendly, fashionable and comfortable glasses. Some have also developed universal glasses to achieve compatibility.
Emphasis on 2D Performance
Since the amount of time consumers spend watching 2D content will exceed that of 3D on a 3D-ready TV, it is important to not sacrifice 2D quality, including full HD picture quality and high brightness. Some panel makers have developed high aperture pixel technology to improve vivid full HD picture quality, as well as high contrast panel technology to realize real black, even in low gray scales.
The Advanced LED+3D version of the Quarterly Large Area TFT LCD Shipment Report covers the entire range of large-area panels shipped worldwide and by region, with LED-backlit and 3D panels featured. With 100% coverage of panel makers and authored by industry experts, the Quarterly Large Area TFT LCD Shipment Report analyzes historical shipments and forecasts projections to provide some of the most detailed information and insights available. The report is delivered in Excel pivot tables, flex spreadsheets and a PowerPoint analysis. For more information, contact Charles Camaroto at 1.888.436.7673 or 1.516.625.2452, e-mail contact(at)displaysearch(dot)com or contact your regional DisplaySearch office in China, Japan, Korea or Taiwan.
About DisplaySearch
Since 1996, DisplaySearch has been recognized as a leading global market research and consulting firm specializing in the display supply chain, as well as the emerging photovoltaic/solar cell industries. DisplaySearch provides trend information, forecasts and analyses developed by a global team of experienced analysts with extensive industry knowledge. In collaboration with The NPD Group, its parent company, DisplaySearch uniquely offers a true end-to-end view of the display supply chain from materials and components to shipments of electronic devices with displays to sales of major consumer and commercial channels. For more information on DisplaySearch analysts, reports and industry events, visit us at http://www.displaysearch.com. Read our blog at http://www.displaysearchblog.com and follow us on Twitter at @DisplaySearch.
About The NPD Group, Inc.
The NPD Group is the leading provider of reliable and comprehensive consumer and retail information for a wide range of industries. Today, more than 1,800 manufacturers, retailers, and service companies rely on NPD to help them drive critical business decisions at the global, national, and local market levels. NPD helps our clients to identify new business opportunities and guide product development, marketing, sales, merchandising, and other functions. Information is available for the following industry sectors: automotive, beauty, commercial technology, consumer technology, entertainment, fashion, food and beverage, foodservice, home, office supplies, software, sports, toys, and wireless. For more information, contact us or visit http://www.npd.com and http://www.npdgroupblog.com. Follow us on Twitter at @npdtech and @npdgroup.
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